Comprehensive Interpretation of the 2025-2026 China PV Industry Development Roadmap

I. Release Background and Core Positioning

• Issuing Body: China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), released on February 5, 2026, at the “PV Industry 2025 Review and 2026 Outlook Seminar”.

• Core Positioning: The 10th edition of the industry's annual roadmap, focusing on high-quality development transformation, shifting from “scale competition” to “value competition”, providing guidance for the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan.

• Indicator Updates: Added key indicators such as XBC wafers, BC cell share, 0BB process, frame types, and optimized the evaluation system for the energy storage segment.

II. Market Size Forecast: Short-Term Correction, Long-Term Stability

Key influencing factors:

• Short-term: Wait-and-see sentiment due to distributed management measures, feed-in tariff reform, and market-based trading policies.

• Medium/Long-term: Mandatory PV installation in zero-carbon factories, expansion of green power trading, and adoption of BIPV/BAPV opening new spaces.

• Transition signal: The industry proactively warns of scale correction for the first time, marking that the “anti-involution” policy has entered a critical phase.

III. Technology Evolution Path: N-Type Dominates, BC Rises, Tandem Breakthroughs

1. Wafer Segment

• Size Standardization: 182/210 mm account for >99%, ultra-thinning accelerates (XBC wafer thickness reduced to 100-110 μm).

• Cutting Technology: Tungsten wire diameter further reduced to 30-35 μm, increasing yield by 5-8%.

• Capacity Optimization: “Guanghe Qiancheng” procurement platform strictly controls polysilicon capacity within 1.5 million tons, phasing out outdated capacity.

2. Cell Technology Roadmap (Core Changes)

3. Module Segment

• 0BB Technology: Market share rises rapidly, reducing silver consumption by >30%, requires high-precision inspection equipment.

• Lightweight Frames: Aluminum/composite frame ratio adjusted, bifacial module share exceeds 90%.

• Reliability Upgrade: Warranty extended to 30 years, stricter standards for defects like PID, snail trails, and cracks.

IV. Quality Control Upgrade: Inspection Technology Becomes Core Competitiveness

1. New Requirements for Cell/Module Inspection

2. Inspection Technology Trends Defined by the Roadmap

• Full-Chain Inspection: Widespread adoption of quality traceability systems from polysilicon → wafers → cells → modules → power plants.

• Deep AI Application: Machine vision replaces manual, defect recognition accuracy exceeds 98%, inspection efficiency increased 10x.

• Standardization Progress: Accelerated development of standards for emerging technologies like drone EL inspection and 0BB module testing.

V. Opportunities and Challenges for Inspection Equipment Companies (e.g., Nanjing Vision Potential)

Core Opportunities

1. Surge in N-type/BC cell inspection demand: High-precision PL/EL equipment becomes standard on production lines, market expected to grow 40%+ in 2026.

2. Expanding power plant aftermarket: Over 1000 GW of PV plants in China entering O&M phase, demand for AI + drone inspection equipment soars.

3. Large overseas market: Stricter quality certification in Europe and America, growing demand for export inspection equipment.

4. Technical differentiation advantage: Provide integrated “inspection + data analysis + O&M” solutions, avoiding price wars.

Response Strategies

1. Technology Iteration:

   • Develop PL/EL inspection modules dedicated to XBC cells, adapting to ultra-thin wafers and 0BB processes.

   • Upgrade AI algorithms to automatically grade defects like micro-cracks, poor soldering, and dark chips.

   • Develop flexible module inspection equipment, positioning for the perovskite tandem cell inspection market.

2. Market Deployment:

   • Focus on commercial and industrial distributed PV inspection, aligning with zero-carbon factory retrofits.

   • Expand cooperation with overseas certification bodies, providing equipment compliant with IEC 61215/61730 standards.

3. Service Upgrade:

   • Launch a subscription model of “equipment + cloud platform + O&M services” to enhance customer stickiness.

   • Build a defect database to offer yield optimization consulting services.

VI. Key Industry Transformation Measures and Policy Direction

1. Capacity Governance:

   • Phasing out outdated capacity through legal means, controlling polysilicon/wafer/cell/module capacity within reasonable ranges.

   • Establish capacity utilization early-warning mechanism; companies below 70% subject to key supervision.

2. Value Enhancement Paths:

   • Build technological moats with high-quality IP to curb low-level redundant construction.

   • Dual constraints on energy consumption and efficiency across the whole chain, promoting green manufacturing certification.

   • Export strategy shift: from “low-price volume” to “technology + brand + service” premium model.

3. Policy Package:

   • Break market segmentation, promote unified national market.

   • Optimize export tax rebate policy, guiding industry towards high-value-added segments.

   • Strengthen quality supervision, establish full lifecycle traceability system for modules.

VII. Summary and Action Recommendations

The 2025-2026 Roadmap clearly outlines the transformation trajectory of the PV industry: short-term scale adjustments are for long-term high-quality development; technological innovation and quality control will become core competitiveness.

Action List for Inspection Equipment Companies

1. R&D: Upgrade N-type/BC cell dedicated inspection equipment within 6 months, adapting to 0BB processes and ultra-thin wafers.

2. Market Expansion: Focus on commercial & industrial distributed PV and existing plant O&M markets; add 10-15 service outlets in prefecture-level cities by 2026.

3. Ecosystem Collaboration: Establish joint labs with module manufacturers, participate in setting inspection standards to enhance industry influence.

4. Service Enhancement: Develop equipment health management systems, provide predictive maintenance services to extend equipment life.